New Jersey Is Still a Swing State in the Making

New Jersey Remains a Developing Swing State

Despite a disappointing Tuesday, Republican support in New Jersey shows signs of rising. A key part of any campaign strategy is estimating the number of votes needed to secure victory. This process combines art with analysis of past elections and current political enthusiasm.

Campaign outcomes are influenced by many external factors beyond candidates’ control. These include:

Successful campaigns in such climates manage to either localize races enough to defy national trends — as seen in Nassau County around 2025 — or achieve target vote counts to support down-ballot candidates.

Jack Ciattarelli's Campaign Performance

While not flawless, Jack Ciattarelli's bid for governor gathered a number of votes that would have secured him the New Jersey governorship in any election since 1973 — except in 2025.

Unlike Winsome Sears, who garnered more than 200,000 fewer votes than Glenn Youngkin, Ciattarelli achieved the highest vote total for a New Jersey Republican gubernatorial candidate in fifty years.

"Jack Ciattarelli received the most votes of any New Jersey Republican running for governor in a half-century."

Despite this historic turnout, the GOP candidate was still unable to claim victory in 2025.

Summary

New Jersey, though challenging, continues its trajectory as a swing state where local dynamics and voter enthusiasm critically shape election outcomes.

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The American Conservative The American Conservative — 2025-11-07

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