Canadian History and Floor-Crossing
Terms like traitor, shameful, brave, and principled describe MPs who change party affiliation, but the one label that rarely fits is being re-elected. Historically, politicians who switch parties in Canada often face electoral challenges.
Recent Developments
The political world was surprised when longtime Conservative Chris d'Entremont joined the federal Liberal caucus, with Prime Minister Mark Carney suggesting others might follow.
Historical Context
Floor-crossing is a long-standing political practice dating back to Confederation. However, its consequences have changed over time.
The Electoral Impact Over Time
Semra Sevi, assistant professor of political science at the University of Toronto, studied every MP who switched parties from Confederation until 2015. Her research shows that before the mid-20th century, MPs who crossed the floor generally retained similar vote shares in the following election.
Since the 1970s, however, the electoral success of floor-crossers has declined significantly.
“Switching parties is an extremely risky move that almost always hurts a politician's chances of re-election,” said Semra Sevi.
Sevi explains that as political parties have become more institutionalized, the electoral cost of switching has increased drastically, making it harder for politicians to survive outside their original party.
Despite this trend, rare successes still exist.
Summary
Floor-crossing in Canadian politics has historically become a riskier move electorally, with party loyalty increasingly playing a decisive role in MPs' re-election prospects.
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